Numbers & Opinions.

• September 9, 2026 / 10 min read

  What three games can and can't tell you about a title race

  Arsenal and City are both 3-0-0 and the table can't tell them apart. My model can, by about a point of title probability, and the reason it can is the only interesting thing here.

• August 8, 2026 / 8 min read

  Sorry Vegas, My NFL Rookie Model Disagrees With You

  49 players, seven weighted components, scored against a live betting market: the full component heat map, the two-factor view, model-vs-market divergence, and a weight-sensitivity honesty check.

• July 21, 2026 / 3 min read

  World Cup 2026 as a template for future mega-events

  48 teams, 104 matches, 6.81M attendance at 99.7% occupancy. Expansion multiplied demand instead of diluting it.

• July 20, 2026 / 5 min read

  Spain's World Cup defense, at the underlying-numbers level

  One goal conceded in eight matches, 0.3 xG allowed per game, and a final where the champions could not register a shot on target.

• July 7, 2026 / 1 min read

  Cristiano Ronaldo played his final World Cup

  Not a data post. Just what it was like to be there for the last one.

• May 25, 2026 / 6 min read

  Pep Guardiola's last season at Man City, at the underlying-numbers level

  Five-year lows in possession, five-year highs in fast breaks. The pressing data and the attacking model behind a second-place finish.

• May 25, 2026 / 6 min read

  Arsenal's title, broken down at the underlying-numbers level

  Manchester City scored more goals. The xG model, the shot-suppression data, the pressing numbers and the corner routine explain how Arsenal still won by seven.

• December 28, 2025 / 5 min read

  I told Marcus the Seahawks were for real

  Sixteen games of Sam Darnold, charted out, plus a rolling point-margin model that says Seattle is peaking at the right time.

• December 8, 2025 / 3 min read

  Wrexham's Apollo deal might be the peak of private equity in sports

  Apollo bought under 10% of Wrexham at a reported $475M valuation, for a club that cost about $2.5M in 2021.

• November 2025 / 4 min read

  Why Penix wasn't the problem for the Falcons

  Atlanta went 3-6 with Penix under center and now he's out for the year. The record looks bad. The cause doesn't point at him.

• October 2025 / 5 min read

  Can Jaylen Brown actually carry the Celtics without Tatum

  Boston gutted its own championship roster to duck the tax. Jaylen Brown is what's left standing at the front of it.

• March 2025 / 5 min read

  Can Jimmy Butler get the Warriors a championship

  Golden State was a play-in team when they traded for him. Five weeks later Draymond is guaranteeing a title on national TV.